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The most recent data on the American foreclosure market, published in The Atlantic (www.theatlantic.com), indicates that before 2010 is over, there will likely be one million seized properties, with Nevada, California, Florida, and Arizona being the worst-affected states.
As homeowners continue to lose their jobs or remain unemployed, there will likely be one foreclosure on a home listing in every 138 families. Since their homes are worth less than what they owe on their mortgages, many homeowners have also been turned down for refinancing. The government’s effort to prevent foreclosures did make a small impact, giving over 200,000 homeowners (over 20% of troubled borrowers) modifications of their loans.
How should homeowners handle foreclosures? A recent poll sponsored by RealtyTrac and Trulia.com found that unemployment, not the same subprime mortgage products that first popularized the trend, is to blame for today’s foreclosures. In the US, unemployed borrowers today hold about one in five mortgages. Only 1% of those surveyed indicated that leaving their homes would be their first choice, according to the poll. Some homeowners decide to leave even if they are still capable of paying their mortgage; this action is referred to as strategic default.
People who wish to buy them are the opposite of how many homes are in foreclosure. There don’t appear to be enough purchasers to cover all the foreclosures. Additionally, purchasers who have the resources are leery of foreclosures. The study also revealed that the recession that followed the collapse of the property market is having the greatest impact on the construction industry. With over 90% of respondents saying they would be ready to spend money on house repairs and renovations on a purchased foreclosure, remodeling foreclosed homes could aid this market a little. For the construction sector, this is encouraging.
The foreclosed properties that we see on the market are by no means the only ones that exist, as Rick Sharga, Senior Vice President of RealtyTrac, is keen to point out. The banks are introducing many of them into the real estate market to avoid oversaturating it and driving down prices. According to Sharga, there are approximately three times as many “hidden foreclosures”—also known as “shadow inventory”—as there are “open foreclosures.”
What do all these numbers tell us, aside from the fact that we already knew that home foreclosures will continue for a while? The number of foreclosures will reach a new high in 2011 and won’t return to “normal” for another two years, predicts Sharga, who examined the market. Also, Sharga predicts that house values will climb, if at all, over the next two to three years.
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